UTILIZAÇÃO DO MODELO LOGIT BINOMIAL PARA DETERMINAÇÃO DE PROBABILIDADE DE ATRASO DE VOOS EM AEROPORTOS BRASILEIROS¶
Abstract¶
THE METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS AND THOSE ARISING FROM THE INCREASE IN PASSENGER’S MOVEMENT ARE CRUCIAL IN AIR TRAFFIC OPERATIONS. THESE FACTORS CAN IMPACT IN DEMAND AND OPERATIONAL CAPACITY OF AN AIRPORT, THIS LEADS TO A REDUCTION IN ON-TIME PERFORMANCE AND CAN LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COSTS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COSTS AND LOSSES FOR OPERATORS. FOR THIS REASON, UNDERSTANDING THE FACTORS THAT CAUSE DELAYS IN ON-TIME FLIGHTS INCREASES MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY AND REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF DISRUPTIONS IN THE AIRLINE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THIS STUDY INVESTIGATES THE IMPACTS OF WEATHER WEATHER AND NON-WEATHER CONDITIONS, ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK PASSENGER’S MOVEMENT PERIODS AND SEASONS, ON THE PROBABILITY OF AIRCRAFT ARRIVAL DELAYS USING THE CASES OF AT PALMAS/TO INTERNATIONAL AIR AIRPORT (SBPJ), SÃO PAULO/SP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (SBGR), MANAUS/AM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (SBEG), BELÉM/PA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (SBBE), AND RECIFE/PE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (SBRF). FOR THIS ANALYSIS, A HISTORICAL SERIES OF PREDICTED AND ACTUAL LANDING TIMES AND METEOROLOGICAL AND NON-WEATHER DATA WERE USED AND THE IMPACT OF THESE VARIABLES ON THE PROBABILITY OF A DELAYED LANDING WAS ESTIMATED USING A BINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL.
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Citing¶
@inproceedings{SIT152,
author = {WELLINGTON LUIZ ROCHA DA SILVA FILHO; EVANDRO JOSÉ DA SILVA; MARCELO XAVIER GUTERRES; MAURO CAETANO; VIVIANE ADRIANO FALCÃO},
title = {UTILIZAÇÃO DO MODELO LOGIT BINOMIAL PARA DETERMINAÇÃO DE PROBABILIDADE DE ATRASO DE VOOS EM AEROPORTOS BRASILEIROS},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2022 Air Transportation Symposium},
series = {SITRAER 2022},
year = {2022},
pages = {73-82},
publisher = {SBTA - Brazilian Air Transportation Research Society},
address = {São José dos Campos, Brazil,}
}
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